Singapore property market update — what actually moved this quarter

Sample post — placeholder copy for layout. Final version to be written against live URA and HDB data.

Every quarter produces the same three headlines: an index moved, a record price was set somewhere, and someone declared a turning point. Here’s the version that’s actually useful if you’re deciding whether to move this year.

What I look at, and why

• HDB resale volume, not just price. Volume tells you whether buyers and sellers agree on price. A rising index on falling volume is a market where sellers are holding out, not one where buyers are competing.
• Median price by town and flat type. The national index is nearly useless for an individual decision. Your flat competes with eleven similar units in your own estate, not with the country.
• New launch take-up in the first weekend, which is the cleanest read on whether developers priced correctly.
• Rental medians, which set the floor under investor demand.

The upgrader’s read

If you’re selling an HDB to buy private, you’re exposed on both sides of the same market. A hot market gets you a better sale and a worse purchase. What actually matters is the gap between the two segments, and whether it’s widening or narrowing — because that gap is what your cash proceeds have to cover.

Where the data comes from

All figures in the published version of this post come from URA caveat data and HDB resale transaction records — completed transactions, not portal asking prices. Asking prices tell you what sellers hope for; caveats tell you what buyers paid.